Tokyo: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is on track to secure a majority in the upcoming House of Representatives election scheduled for 8 February, according to opinion polls conducted by major media outlets.
The surveys indicate that the LDP holds a strong position, especially in constituencies with a significant number of conservative voters. The Nikkei poll released on Wednesday suggested that the LDP could win more seats than the 198 it held before Prime Minister Sane Takaichi dissolved the lower house on 23 January. This would comfortably exceed the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 465-member chamber, as reported by The Japan Times.
Out of 289 single-member constituencies, LDP candidates are leading in about 40 per cent. The party shows dominance in prefectures such as Kumamoto, Yamaguchi, and Tokushima. However, contests remain competitive in over 150 seats where opposition parties are putting up stiff challenges.
The opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) is projected to win fewer than the 167 seats it held before dissolution, possibly falling below 100 seats in total.
Under the proportional representation system, the LDP is expected to gain 70 or more seats, surpassing the 59 seats won in the previous lower house election. Together with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the LDP-led coalition could secure around 261 seats, ensuring a majority across all parliamentary committees.
Only a few CRA candidates appear strong in single-seat districts. The party is expected to lead in approximately 40 constituencies and could win close to 100 seats overall, with an additional 40 seats anticipated through proportional representation.
Similarly, the Yomiuri Shimbun’s opinion poll also indicates that the LDP may achieve a majority in the forthcoming election. The party enjoys considerable support in the Chugoku and Kyushu regions and seems poised to capture all seats in its traditional strongholds.
The Japan Innovation Party maintains a firm grip in its Osaka base but faces challenges in the proportional representation vote. The Yomiuri poll also forecasts a decline in CRA seats compared to the pre-dissolution numbers.
Before the dissolution, the ruling coalition held a slim majority in the lower house and was in the minority in the upper house. This situation required the government to seek support from opposition lawmakers to pass legislation.
Prime Minister Sane Takaichi’s decision to dissolve the House of Representatives on 23 January and call for elections on 8 February was approved by her cabinet. According to Kyodo News, this marks the first time in six decades that the lower house has been dissolved at the start of a regular session.
Prime Minister Takaichi stated that the election was called because, since taking office in October, she had yet to secure clear public backing for her government.
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