New Delhi, April 6: The African Union (AU) and its partners have issued a warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could pose a significant threat to African economies.
According to a joint report by the AU, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, the African Development Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme, if the conflict persists and disrupts shipping routes, energy supplies, and fertilizer availability, it could severely impact Africa’s economic growth.
The report highlights that many African nations have not yet returned to pre-COVID growth rates. If the conflict continues for more than six months, Africa’s GDP growth rate could decline by up to 0.2% in 2026.
The institutions noted that the conflict has already affected trade and could lead to a crisis in inflation, as prices for fuel and food items may rise. Additionally, factors such as increased shipping costs, insurance expenses, currency pressures, and tight fiscal conditions could exacerbate the situation. The most vulnerable families will be hit hardest.
The report indicates that 15.8% of Africa’s total imports and 10.9% of its exports are linked to the Middle East, clearly showing that conditions there directly affect Africa.
It also stated that for some countries, the impact of food shortages could be more significant than that of oil supply disruptions. If natural gas supplies from Gulf countries are affected, the production of ammonia and urea will decline, leading to higher fertilizer costs during critical farming seasons (March to May).
This will directly impact food prices, making it increasingly difficult for impoverished families to secure meals. Consequently, food security in Africa may face serious challenges.
The report further expressed concerns that the conflict could also affect politics and security. If the situation escalates, there may be an intensified competition for influence from external countries in Africa. Signs of this are already evident in nations like Sudan, Somalia, and Libya.
In conclusion, the report emphasizes that Africa must strengthen its energy security, manage government spending, expedite the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and develop economic security measures to better withstand such shocks in the future.
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