New Delhi, April 1: Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his desire to “seize Iran’s oil” and potentially gain control over Kharg Island, a crucial hub for Iran’s oil exports. However, Iran is determined to maintain its dominance over the island. Is what the U.S. aims for really feasible?
According to Veena Sikri, a former High Commissioner of India to Bangladesh, the situation is far from simple.
In response to a question, Sikri stated, “It is true that 90% of Iran’s exports come from here. Experts suggest that Iran could cut off supplies, but this would also impact its own revenue. There will be losses on both sides. If the U.S. attempts to advance, it will also face significant risks due to the island’s geographical position, which requires navigating 600-800 kilometers inland.”
When asked if the current situation could be classified as a ‘limited’ war, Sikri replied, “No, this is not a limited war. Recently, 900 kilograms of explosives were dropped on Isfahan.”
She further elaborated that the conflict could unfold in two stages: the presence of “troops on the ground” at Kharg Island, where 90% of exports occur, and the U.S. has indicated its intention to seize control. On Wednesday, Trump is expected to address the nation, and people are speculating about whether he will announce a withdrawal or a ground confrontation.
Sikri also highlighted the military capabilities of the U.S. in the Gulf region. “They have 40,000 troops in the Gulf, 3,000 paratroopers, two large ships, and a significant naval presence. An amphibious assault group is also deployed, indicating they may be planning an attack, whether it be a land assault or an announcement of withdrawal.”
Is the Strait of Hormuz truly a chokepoint for other nations? Sikri affirmed, “It is a critical chokepoint. Fuel, petroleum products, and gas from the Gulf and other countries pass through here. Iran’s military is stationed here and has demonstrated its ability to launch attacks using maritime explosives or small boats. Trump previously claimed they would seize control but failed to do so. It appears Iran is looking to negotiate, although its tax model may not be favorable for everyone.”
Regarding Iran’s strategy of “raise the price, buy time,” especially when the U.S. does not desire a prolonged conflict, Sikri commented, “Initially, they thought it wouldn’t last long. They anticipated that Supreme Leader Khamenei would die on February 28, and everything would end. However, the IRGC has continued to launch attacks in the Gulf and decentralized their operations, targeting U.S. bases. Although information is restricted, reports indicate that U.S. bases have suffered damage, and Israel’s Iron Dome has also been compromised. These are unexpected challenges for them. Now, Iran aims to solidify its position and control the Strait of Hormuz, urging the U.S. to exit the Middle East. As for the U.S.’s 15-point plan, it has been in motion since June of last year, but discussions have not yielded significant results.”
Could the rising costs of war and the burden on taxpayers limit Trump’s decisions? In response, Sikri noted, “Indeed, the conflict is having a negative impact. Sixty percent of people oppose it. Rising petroleum and gas prices are significant for the public. The price of petroleum has increased by $1 per gallon, leading to inflation. The number of those opposing the war is likely to grow.”
If the situation escalates, what strategies should India adopt for its energy security and diplomacy? Sikri stated that India is well-prepared. “Our government is quite serious. We have good relations with the Iranian government. We are in discussions with Masoud Pezeshkian. Our ships are arriving, and we are sourcing oil from around 40 countries, including significant support from Russia. The Indian government has even sacrificed excise duties.”
Questions are also arising about the roles of countries like China and Russia in this crisis. Are they providing indirect support to Iran?
Sikri mentioned that China has remained silent and has not said much; everyone knows Iran relies heavily on them for satellite imagery. However, reports suggest that they have not received weapons and are facing restrictions on their vessels. In contrast, Russia is providing assistance and technical support.
My name is Bhupendra Singh Chundawat. I am an experienced content writer with several years of expertise in the field. Currently, I contribute to Daily Kiran, creating engaging and informative content across a variety of categories including technology, health, travel, education, and automobiles. My goal is to deliver accurate, insightful, and captivating information through my words to help readers stay informed and empowered.
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