New Delhi, May 11: India’s economy is anticipated to grow at a rate of 6.6% in the fiscal year 2026-27, with a potential increase to 7.2% in the fourth quarter of FY 2026. This information was revealed in a report by SBI Research on Monday.
The report indicates that India’s growth rate is expected to remain at 7.5% for FY 2026, demonstrating resilience in the Indian economy despite global shocks.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor at the State Bank of India (SBI), stated, “Positive signals from both agricultural and non-agricultural activities have kept rural consumption robust. With fiscal incentives, urban consumption has shown consistent growth since the last festive season.”
Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) recorded a 16.1% increase in bank loans during FY 2026, up from 11.0% in FY 2025. Total loan growth reached ₹29.5 lakh crore, with ₹5 lakh crore in the first half and ₹24.5 lakh crore in the second half.
The government’s push for consumption through GST has sustained loan growth in the second half of FY 2026. The report indicates that this trend continues, with a 16% increase in loans as of April 30, 2026.
The report further states, “However, we expect loan growth to remain strong in the first half of FY 2027, with a decline in the second half due to a high base effect. For the entire year, loan growth is projected to be around 13-14%.”
Despite external crises, particularly the West Asian turmoil, domestic consumption is expected to contribute positively to GDP growth.
Additionally, according to SBI’s report, a $10 increase in crude oil prices could lead to a 0.35% rise in the current account rate, a 0.35% to 0.40% increase in inflation, and a 0.20% to 0.25% boost to GDP.
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