IEA Predicts Decline in Crude Oil Demand Amid Middle East Tensions

by

Himanshu Tiwari

IEA Predicts Decline in Crude Oil Demand Amid Middle East Tensions

New Delhi, April 14: The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Tuesday that crude oil demand is expected to decline in the second quarter of 2026. This drop would mark the largest decrease since the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant reduction in fuel demand.

Due to changes in the global outlook caused by the conflict in Iran, a daily decrease of 80,000 barrels is anticipated this year.

The agency’s report forecasts a decline of 1.5 million barrels per day in demand during the second quarter of 2026, representing the steepest drop since the substantial reduction in fuel consumption due to COVID-19.

The report highlights that the decline in oil demand will be particularly evident in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, primarily affecting naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel.

According to the report, ongoing disruptions in crude oil supply and damage to infrastructure have led to a continuous decline in global crude oil production, which is increasing demand in global product markets.

Following one of the most severe oil supply crises in history, March recorded the largest monthly increase in oil prices to date.

The IEA stated that this situation is putting pressure on oil-importing countries to secure supplies, resulting in crude oil prices reaching as high as $150 per barrel in the physical market. During this time, there has been a lack of correlation between futures and physical market prices.

The IEA emphasized that resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor in alleviating pressure on energy supply, prices, and the global economy.

The report also noted that refining companies and countries are utilizing their reserves to cope with the oil crisis, leading to a decline in oil inventories.

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