New Delhi, August 31: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-average rainfall across the country for September, along with above-normal temperatures in most regions.
According to the forecast, there is a high likelihood of monthly rainfall being below the Long Period Average (LPA), which is defined as less than 91% of the LPA. Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the LPA for September rainfall is approximately 167.9 mm. Many areas in the country are expected to experience below-average rainfall.
However, some regions in northwestern, northeastern, eastern, central-eastern, and southeastern peninsular India may see normal or above-normal rainfall. The probability-based estimates indicate a widespread expectation of below-average rainfall.
Regarding temperatures, most parts of the country are likely to experience average maximum temperatures that are mostly normal. The average minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most areas, except for some parts of northwestern, central-western, and northeastern India, where temperatures may remain normal or below normal.
According to the IMD’s press release, strong El Niño conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific region being above normal. These conditions are expected to strengthen in the coming months. Currently, a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) situation exists in the Indian Ocean. The IMD’s Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests that the neutral IOD condition is likely to persist until September.
However, some international climate centers indicate that a positive IOD situation may develop starting in September.
The anticipated below-average rainfall could adversely affect agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem stability, and the availability of drinking water. Additionally, the risk of heat stress in several areas may increase.
The IMD has advised relevant agencies and stakeholders to prepare in advance, which includes water conservation, proper resource management, and developing emergency plans related to agriculture.
The IMD will release forecasts for the northeastern monsoon season (October to December 2026) and the outlook for rainfall and temperatures in October by the end of September.
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