New Delhi, September 30 (Daily Kiran) : As Uttar Pradesh gears up for its assembly elections early next year, a dispute has emerged between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP) regarding seat sharing. This situation mirrors the tensions seen in the Mahagathbandhan ahead of the Bihar assembly elections in 2025. In both instances, Congress has sought a significant role within the alliance, while regional partners have been reluctant to concede seats.
The coalition between Congress and SP performed strongly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, bolstering the opposition’s strength in the state and challenging the long-standing dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Buoyed by this performance, Congress leaders are now pushing for an early agreement on seat distribution for the assembly elections. Reports indicate that Congress is aiming for a “respectable” number of seats, potentially over 150 in the 403-member assembly. However, other coalition partners are also expected to demand their share.
The SP appears more amenable to granting Congress around 80 seats. Public statements from leaders of both parties have begun to surface, with comments regarding each other’s political stature, organizational strength, and electoral contributions. Nevertheless, both sides have indicated that the final decision on seat sharing will rest with the top leadership of the parties, pointing towards Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and SP president Akhilesh Yadav.
Current dynamics in Uttar Pradesh reveal similarities to the seat-sharing disputes seen in the Mahagathbandhan ahead of Bihar’s 2025 elections. In Bihar, Congress leveraged the political climate created by Rahul Gandhi’s new outreach campaign to enhance its bargaining power.
During the 2020 assembly elections, Congress contested approximately 70 seats and is now insisting on a similar number. However, leaders of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), including Tejashwi Yadav, were not inclined to accept all of Congress’s demands. RJD argued that seat allocation should be based not only on political aspirations but also on past electoral performances. In 2020, Congress won only 19 of the 70 seats it contested, which RJD cited to limit Congress’s demands.
As disagreements over seat sharing intensified, speculation grew. At one point, Tejashwi Yadav suggested that RJD was prepared to contest all 243 assembly seats in Bihar, a move interpreted as a strategy to pressure Congress.
Despite Rahul Gandhi’s increased political activity in Bihar, the RJD’s regional strength played a decisive role in negotiations. Ultimately, Congress settled for 61 seats, but the election results were disappointing, yielding just six seats—13 fewer than in 2020—while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved a significant victory.
The Bihar experience highlighted the challenges of maintaining unity among smaller coalition partners. Congress and RJD ally Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) also sought a fair share of seats within the Bihar Mahagathbandhan. JMM leaders claimed their interests were not respected and warned of contesting elections independently if their demands were not met.
Although JMM ultimately refrained from running separately, the situation impacted seat negotiations within the alliance. Similarly, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) expressed interest in joining the Mahagathbandhan, contacting RJD leaders regarding a limited number of seats. However, their offers were not accepted, leading AIMIM to form a separate coalition and contest 79 seats, winning five.
In Bihar, the NDA also made inroads into traditionally opposition-held Muslim-majority constituencies, winning around 16 seats that had historically been strongholds for rival parties. Approximately 32 assembly seats in Bihar are considered Muslim-majority, primarily located in districts along the Nepal border, where voter turnout was notably high in the 2025 elections.
As tensions over seat sharing rise between Congress and SP in Uttar Pradesh, the critical question remains whether they can navigate these challenges differently than their Bihar counterparts. Uttar Pradesh is politically significant, and the alliance strategy could influence not just the state’s power dynamics but also the broader future of the opposition coalition.
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