Concerns Rise Over Indus Water Treaty Suspension Amid Flood Risks in Jammu and Kashmir

Srinagar, August 14: Political expert Rashid Rahil has expressed serious concerns regarding India’s announcement to suspend the Indus Water Treaty following ‘Operation Sindoor.’ He warns that this decision will primarily impact Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. The construction of dams to block water flow could increase the risk of flooding in the valley, while also escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. Rahil noted that a restoration of the treaty may be possible in the future.

Rahil stated, “When India and Pakistan gained independence in 1947, many resources were shared between the two nations. The most crucial resource was water, which flows from India to Pakistan and eventually to the sea. Water is a natural gift, but the primary right belongs to those who depend on it for their livelihood. Others may have rights afterward.”

He emphasized that after ‘Operation Sindoor,’ India indicated its intention to terminate the Indus Water Treaty. The rivers that flow through Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab should primarily benefit the local populations. As the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir has also pointed out, the first claim to this water belongs to the people here. If the water is diverted elsewhere, those regions can utilize it afterward. “If we halt this flow, it could rekindle tensions between the two countries,” he added.

Rahil explained that constructing dams and blocking water flow increases the risk of flooding in areas where these dams are built, which may include parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. If the water flow is obstructed, Jammu and Kashmir could face significant threats, particularly in the valley. He does not believe that either government will allow this situation to persist indefinitely, suggesting that a restoration of the treaty is likely.

He further noted, “Cooperation is happening; people are connecting, and distances are diminishing. As India and Pakistan engage on issues related to Jammu and Kashmir and signal a willingness to work on Track Two diplomacy, it indicates that dialogue may resume in the future. Countries with resources often hold leverage over others. Clearly, if tensions rise, the country with resources can weaken the other. This presents a strategic opportunity for India, which could devise a plan that compels Pakistan to yield.”