New Delhi, June 3: The ongoing crisis in West Asia and the resulting geopolitical uncertainties are significantly impacting the recovery of the Indian aviation sector. A new report indicates that this crisis is visibly affecting passenger numbers, flight capacity, and overall airline profitability.
In April 2026, international passenger traffic for Indian airlines remained under pressure. Approximately 1.8 million passengers traveled internationally during this period, marking a 39% decrease compared to the previous year and a 1% drop from March.
According to the latest ‘Aviation Tracker’ report by Equirus Securities, Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) fell by around 33% year-on-year to 7.2 billion. There was also a notable decline of about 37% in the number of flights, although a slight monthly improvement was observed.
The report stated that airlines continued to reduce capacity, with Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) decreasing by approximately 28% year-on-year. However, the drop in passenger demand exceeded the capacity cuts, resulting in a Passenger Load Factor (PLF) of about 75.5%. This is down by 6.17 percentage points from last year and 7.35 percentage points from the previous month.
The negative impact of the West Asia conflict persisted in April, affecting both passenger numbers and network operations. Despite a slight easing in fuel prices, costs remain high. Brent crude prices averaged around $92 per barrel in April, which is 44% higher than a year ago. Meanwhile, Singapore jet fuel prices hovered around $128 per barrel, marking a 65% annual increase.
The depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar is also a concern for airlines. The rupee has weakened to nearly 95 per dollar, which is about 11% lower than last year. This has led to significant increases in aircraft leasing, maintenance, and other dollar-denominated expenses.
In India, the price of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) remains elevated. In April, ATF prices were approximately ₹1.05 lakh per kiloliter, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year and a 9% rise from the previous month.
The report notes that government intervention has mitigated the full impact of global fuel inflation on passengers. In the domestic aviation sector, passenger numbers dropped to around 13.9 million in April, which is a 3% decrease year-on-year and a 4% decline month-on-month.
Although airlines have continued to increase capacity, with a nearly 3% rise in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK), weak demand has led to lower seat utilization.
The West Asia crisis remains the biggest risk for the aviation sector at present. Airlines have taken steps such as capacity adjustments and route changes, but international flights are still under pressure due to shifts in travel patterns and weak demand. This is delaying the broader recovery of the aviation sector.
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