New Delhi, June 5: The central government will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the fourth quarter (January-March) of the fiscal year 2025-26 on Friday. Economists believe that due to global uncertainties and external risks, the growth rate may be slightly lower than previous estimates.
Additionally, the GDP figures for the entire fiscal year will be based on the new reference year of 2022-23. This is considered a significant statistical revision in the calculation of national income.
Economists estimate that India’s economic growth rate for FY 2025-26 could be around 7.4%, which is approximately 0.20% lower than the second advance estimate (SAE).
These figures will be closely monitored by policymakers, market experts, and economists to assess the impact of rising geopolitical tensions and high energy prices on domestic demand, investment activities, and consumption.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a GDP growth rate of 6.9% for FY 2026-27. Meanwhile, economists have identified high crude oil prices and the risk of a weak monsoon as major threats to the economy.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects the total monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country over a specific period. It is considered the most comprehensive indicator of economic activity and provides a crucial basis for fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investment decisions.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is the largest contributor to economic activities, accounting for approximately 55-56% of GDP in real terms.
According to the second advance estimate (SAE), the growth rate of PFCE for FY 2025-26 is projected to be 8.9%, down from 9.7% in FY 2024-25.
Investment activities, measured through Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), are also expected to support the economy, with a growth rate of 7.1% for FY 2025-26, compared to 6.4% in the previous fiscal year.
Government spending is also anticipated to remain strong, with Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) expected to increase by 9.6% in FY 2025-26, although slightly lower than the previous fiscal year.
Gross Value Added (GVA), which reflects production across various sectors, is projected to grow at a rate of 7.7% in FY 2025-26, up from 7.3% the previous year.
These figures will provide a clear picture of how India’s economy has navigated domestic demand, investment momentum, and global challenges during FY 2025-26. They will also offer insights into the economic growth for the current fiscal year.
Previously, in May, the government revised the release date for the annual GDP provisional estimates (PE) and quarterly estimates for the fourth quarter (QB) to June 7 (or the preceding working day if June 7 is a holiday).
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