Mumbai, May 17: In 2026, global crude oil prices are projected to remain between $90 and $110 per barrel. This forecast is influenced by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the low likelihood of an agreement between the United States and Iran, according to a report released by Moody’s.
The global rating agency stated that even if safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in the next six months, oil supply will still be limited. Energy prices are expected to remain high and volatile, impacting costs, demand, and funding.
Moody’s report noted, “We estimate that Brent crude prices will fluctuate between $90 and $110 per barrel for most of this year, with significant volatility that may occasionally push prices outside this range.”
The agency also mentioned that transit flows will gradually improve, but this will occur through bilateral channels rather than a complete reopening. This means that energy transit flows may see some gradual improvement from the current near-zero levels, but the process will be slow, opaque, and fraught with disruptions.
The report indicated that oil-importing countries—especially China, India, Japan, and Korea—are likely to negotiate transit arrangements bilaterally with Iran. However, it also stated that a return to pre-conflict traffic levels in 2026 is unlikely.
Moody’s highlighted that disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created a structural supply barrier for global energy flows, rather than a temporary supply crisis. The report anticipates that these disruptions will continue until autumn.
Additionally, Moody’s warned that persistently rising energy prices and shortages of energy products will contribute to inflation. The agency estimates that inflation in India will average 4.5% in 2026, up from its previous estimate of 3.5%.
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