Indias Merchandise Exports Projected to Surge 17.6% in Q2 to $131.2 Billion: Report

New Delhi, August 12: India’s total merchandise exports are expected to reach $131.2 billion in the July-September quarter of the fiscal year 2027. This marks a significant increase of 17.6% compared to the same period last year, according to a report released on Wednesday.

The report from India Exim Bank indicates that non-oil exports are projected to rise by 20.3%, reaching $113.8 billion during the second quarter of the current fiscal year.

Furthermore, non-oil and non-gem and jewelry exports are anticipated to grow by 20.5%, amounting to $105.8 billion.

Despite global uncertainties, the report attributes the increase in exports to India’s growing geographical diversification in export markets and favorable prospects arising from recent trade agreements with key trading partners. Additionally, strong demand from partner countries is also supporting export growth.

India Exim Bank stated, “The positive export outlook for India is expected to be bolstered by the continuous expansion of domestic manufacturing and fluctuations in exchange rates. However, geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity markets pose negative risks to exports.”

The bank prepares quarterly export forecasts using its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which assesses export momentum by integrating external and domestic factors.

In the April-June quarter of the fiscal year 2026-27, India’s merchandise exports reached a record level of $129.6 billion, up from $111.6 billion during the same period last year, reflecting a robust growth of 16.1%.

According to information provided to Parliament this week, this figure illustrates the strong foundation of India’s export performance, despite fluctuations in the monthly trade deficit.

In June 2026, India’s merchandise trade deficit stood at $30.4 billion, the highest level in five months. However, this was only slightly above the average deficit of $29.3 billion over the past 12 months.

Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada informed the Lok Sabha that the trade deficit for June 2026 was broadly in line with average levels. He emphasized that the government closely monitors the country’s trade performance, including the merchandise trade deficit.