Mumbai, February 5: Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has commenced coverage of Adani Energy Solutions (AESL), assigning an ‘Overweight’ rating with a target price of ₹1,133 per share.
The firm anticipates that AESL will benefit from the long-term expansion of the power grid in India. It projects an investment of ₹10 trillion in transmission infrastructure over the next decade.
The report highlights the company’s distribution business, noting government support for smart metering, including subsidies, which is expected to enhance private sector participation.
Morgan Stanley also emphasizes AESL’s strong execution record, citing timely and cost-effective project delivery. The firm recognizes AESL’s integrated presence in transmission, distribution, and smart metering, positioning it as a comprehensive grid infrastructure provider.
According to Morgan Stanley, AESL is a leading private sector company in transmission and distribution, holding nearly 50% of the private sector’s transmission projects. The company serves approximately 3.3 million consumers through its distribution networks in Mumbai and Mundra SEZ, and has a robust presence in smart metering.
The report forecasts a 21% CAGR growth in EBITDA from FY 2025 to FY 2030, with EBITDA expected to reach around ₹2,600 crore by FY 2030. This growth is anticipated to stem from successful transmission project wins, regulated distribution capital expenditure, and the execution of smart metering orders.
In the near to medium term, transmission is identified as the strongest growth driver, supported by an existing order book of approximately ₹7,800 crore expected by the third quarter of FY 2026.
Morgan Stanley estimates that AESL could win about 20% of new TBCB projects, representing a potential annual opportunity of ₹20,000 crore.
The report also discusses opportunities arising from parallel licensing in the distribution sector, with AESL aiming to capture a 20% market share.
The company’s regulated asset base is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 11%, supported by an annual capital expenditure of around ₹1,600 crore.
In smart metering, AESL aims for a 20% market share, with the majority of its 24.6 million meter order book expected to be completed by FY 2027. Smart metering is projected to contribute approximately 9% to FY 2028 EBITDA, excluding non-IFRS adjustments.
Morgan Stanley has also covered Adani Ports and SEZ and Adani Power, both receiving positive assessments, reflecting the brokerage’s confidence in their business models.
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