New Delhi, September 7 (Daily Kiran) : A recent report indicates that India’s economy is poised to maintain robust growth in the fiscal year 2026-27, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate projected to exceed 7%. This positive outlook is largely attributed to increased investment and exports, which are expected to offset any potential slowdown in consumption and the diminishing effects of domestic policy incentives.
According to research from SBI Funds Management (SBI FM), barring any significant global economic shocks, the growth rate for FY 2026-27 could remain above 7%. A strong investment cycle and improvements in international trade are anticipated to support relatively high growth rates for the Indian economy.
SBI FM forecasts that nominal GDP growth could surpass 12% in the upcoming quarters. However, persistent inflation and high global commodity prices may keep interest rates elevated for an extended period.
The report suggests that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may gradually shift from its current neutral policy stance towards a more hawkish approach. It is estimated that interest rates could rise by approximately 50 basis points (0.50%) during FY 2026-27. Should inflation remain high, real interest rates may also see a gradual increase.
This optimistic outlook comes at a time when India’s real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of FY 2026-27 has been recorded at 7.8%. Notably, the contributions of investment and exports to this growth have been greater than that of consumption.
The report highlights the encouraging structure of growth, with gross fixed capital formation (investment) and exports both showing an increase of nearly 12% in the first quarter, while consumption expenditure grew by 7.1%. This suggests a shift towards stronger economic activities and a focus on productive sectors.
As the impact of domestic policy incentives wanes and consumption growth remains relatively limited, the responsibility for driving the economy forward will increasingly rely on the investment cycle and global trade.
The report also expresses a positive outlook for corporate investment. Capital expenditure (capex) among BSE-500 companies is expected to rise by 11% in FY 2026-27, following an investment of approximately ₹10.4 lakh crore in FY 2025-26.
Sector-wise, the power sector is projected to be the largest driver of corporate investment growth, contributing an estimated 55% of total additional investment. Following this, the iron and steel and capital goods sectors are expected to play significant roles.
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