Tel Aviv, May 27: Pakistan is stepping into the role of mediator in the peace talks between the United States and Iran. However, this position is not taken from a neutral standpoint but rather within the strategic influence of China.
Reports indicate that while Islamabad presents itself as a reliable intermediary between Washington and Tehran, the shadow of China’s growing strategic influence looms large. Analysts believe that Pakistan’s diplomatic activity reflects its increasing significance in the shifting geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. This also suggests that its foreign policy is influenced by major power centers, especially China, on multiple levels.
Sergio Restelli, a political advisor, writer, and geopolitical expert from Italy, noted that Pakistan is attempting to position itself as a potential mediator amid the current tensions in the Middle East. He stated that Islamabad aims to be seen as useful to Washington, reliable to Tehran, acceptable to Gulf nations, and a responsible player in the broader Muslim world.
However, he emphasized that Pakistan’s mediation efforts should be understood in the context of its historical and strategic record. He specifically mentioned the Karakoram region and the Shaksgam Valley in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which Pakistan ceded to China.
Experts argue that Pakistan’s current policy is driven not by neutrality but by an increasing dependence on China for its strategic existence. Restelli remarked, “On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan, Islamabad has once again presented its old strategic ties in emotional slogans. Phrases like ‘Friend in every season’, ‘Iron Brotherhood’, ‘Higher than the Himalayas’, and ‘Deeper than the sea’ sound sentimental and almost poetic, but behind these slogans lies a bitter reality. Pakistan’s loyalty to China is strengthening because its strategic existence is increasingly reliant on Beijing.”
He further stated, “This matters today because Pakistan is presenting itself as a broker in the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Islamabad wants to appear useful to Washington, reliable to Tehran, acceptable to Gulf nations, and responsible in the eyes of the larger Muslim world. However, any mediation by Pakistan will ultimately reflect more of Beijing’s interests than an illusion of impartiality.”
Citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) for 2026, Restelli noted a 66% increase in Pakistan’s arms imports between 2021 and 2025, with China accounting for 80% of this total.
He stressed that this should be termed dependence rather than diversification. According to him, a country whose military capabilities, air defense, fighter jets, naval systems, and strategic confidence are increasingly reliant on a single supplier cannot claim that its geopolitical decisions are entirely independent.
Restelli pointed out that China’s primary concern is not Iran’s victory, Pakistan’s reputation, or anti-American politics. Instead, Beijing’s real goal is to maintain stability that secures its energy supply, balances US influence, sustains relations with Tehran, and prevents any regional conflict from disrupting Chinese trade and supply chains.
Questioning Pakistan’s role as a reliable mediator, he stated, “Pakistan’s mediation provides China with a useful tool. Islamabad can speak where Beijing may not want to take a clear stand. Pakistan can convey messages, test proposals, reassure Iran, connect with Washington, and signal to Gulf nations, while China remains a significant power in the background.”
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