New Delhi, September 2: The Indian government has dismissed claims suggesting that the GDP figures for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2027 were manipulated. It was alleged that the previous year’s first quarter GDP was revised down from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore to present a more favorable growth rate. Without this adjustment, the GDP growth at current prices would have been reported at 2.6%.
In a statement released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, it was clarified that the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2026-27 is based on a new series with 2022-23 as the base year. Therefore, comparisons cannot be made with the ₹86 lakh crore figure from the first quarter of 2025-26, as that data was part of an older series based on the 2011-12 base year. Accurate comparisons can only be drawn against the ₹80 lakh crore figure derived from the new series.
The ministry emphasized the importance of understanding the changes made to the GDP series before comparing the first quarter estimates. The adjustments in the first quarter estimates for 2025-26 do not imply that the current year’s growth has been overstated. Instead, they reflect ongoing methodological and data-related changes within the GDP series.
Quarterly GDP estimates are prepared using a ‘benchmark-indicator’ approach. This method adjusts quarterly estimates based on revisions in related ‘high-frequency indicators’.
The statement noted that over a hundred volume or value indicators are utilized in the quarterly series, including increases in crop production, cement production index, finished steel consumption, and sales of commercial vehicles. Changes in last year’s benchmark do not artificially inflate the indicators used to estimate the current year’s actual economic activity.
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