New Delhi, March 1: The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has raised alarms among diplomatic experts. They caution that the anticipated regime change, as suggested by the United States and Israel, may not unfold as expected. This incident could have far-reaching effects on the global economy.
Khamenei’s death occurred during an attack by the U.S. and Israel, marking a significant turning point in the 46-year Shia theocracy. Tehran’s response has escalated tensions and conflict across much of the Middle East.
Veena Sikri, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, described the situation as serious and economically destabilizing. She noted that tensions have surged at a time when diplomatic efforts were reportedly underway.
“This is a very serious situation and a major shock to the world economy. We have seen Dubai Airport shut down, impacting Dubai’s economy. The Strait of Hormuz is nearly closed. This is a significant upheaval for the global economy,” she stated.
Sikri added, “This occurred just as Oman was mediating talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva. Initial responses indicated that the talks were progressing well, with Iran agreeing to several concessions. Now, it appears those negotiations were merely a facade, and Israel was determined to attack Iran. I believe Israel took the first step, followed by U.S. involvement.”
Former diplomat K.P. Fabian remarked that this operation represents a crucial military success for Washington and Tel Aviv, but questioned whether it would lead to political change in Iran.
“This is a significant military victory for Israel and the U.S., but it does not mean they are close to achieving what they call regime change, as there is much ambiguity surrounding that term,” he explained.
Fabian also suggested that the attack was based on extensive intelligence. Israel likely possessed both human and electronic intelligence, allowing them to target the house where Khamenei, his daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter were present.
Mahesh Kumar Sachdev, another former diplomat, commented on Khamenei’s long tenure, noting that the Iranian leader maintained a pragmatic yet ideologically firm policy. For 36 years, Khamenei balanced realism with religious supremacy, striving to unify the country and its Islamic revolution.
Sachdev stated that Khamenei attempted to diversify the country’s options by skillfully balancing negotiations, proxy support, relationships with neighboring countries, and internal dynamics among religious leaders, political elites, economic powers, and the judiciary. He was largely successful, although some observers labeled him ruthless and opportunistic.
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