The Portland Trail Blazers wrapped up last season with 36 wins, but their 25–25 record after January 1 gave fans a sense of momentum. With a young roster that seemed to gel as the season went on, optimism for improvement in 2025–26 feels natural. But not everyone is buying in.
In a recent column, The Athletic’s John Hollinger listed the Blazers among five teams most likely to fall short of preseason forecasts, alongside the Knicks, Celtics, Pacers, and Wizards. Sportsbooks have pegged Portland’s over/under at 34.5 wins, slightly below last year’s total. Hollinger argues that even reaching that number could be a struggle.
Why Hollinger is Skeptical
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Net Rating Warning Signs: Despite last season’s win total, Portland ranked 22nd in net rating, a margin that usually produces closer to 33 wins.
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Offensive Concerns: The Blazers finished 23rd in offensive efficiency last season. Losing Anfernee Simons (traded) and Deandre Ayton (bought out) further weakens their scoring punch. Hollinger is particularly critical of relying on 34-year-old Jrue Holiday, who played a limited role offensively last year.
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Pressure on Scoot Henderson: After two inconsistent seasons, Henderson is expected to shoulder a heavy offensive burden—something Hollinger sees as risky.
His conclusion: Portland will defend and play hard, but in a stacked Western Conference, they simply don’t have enough scoring.
Reasons for Optimism
Blazers fans, however, can point to data that tells a different story:
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Without Ayton (19–23): Portland played at a 45% win rate, equal to about 37 wins across a full season.
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Without Simons (8–4): The Blazers went on an impressive stretch, beating contenders like the Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Lakers.
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Without Both Ayton and Simons (7–4): A small sample, but it suggests the team held its own even without its top names.
Beyond that, the case for optimism rests on internal development. Continued growth from Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan, plus a potential quick impact from rookie Yang Hansen, could push the Blazers past expectations.
The Bottom Line
The sportsbooks set the line at 34.5 wins. Hollinger is betting the under. Blazers fans argue that young talent, growth, and encouraging small-sample results without Simons and Ayton point to a higher ceiling.
The truth will start to take shape soon enough — Portland’s preseason tips off October 8.
My name is Bhupendra Singh Chundawat. I am an experienced content writer with several years of expertise in the field. Currently, I contribute to Daily Kiran, creating engaging and informative content across a variety of categories including technology, health, travel, education, and automobiles. My goal is to deliver accurate, insightful, and captivating information through my words to help readers stay informed and empowered.
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