According to the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):
Yesterday’s depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards, intensified into a deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal in the early morning (0530 hrs IST) of today, the 1st December, 2020. At 0830 hrs IST of today, it lay over the same region about 500 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 900 km east-southeast of Kanniyakumari (India).
It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and cross Sri Lanka coast between latitude 7.50N and 9.00N close to Trincomalee during evening/night of 2nd December. It is very likely to move nearly westwards thereafter, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and adjoining Comorin area on 3rd December morning and move westward towards south Tamilnadu coast.
Forecast track and intensity are given below:
| Date/Time(IST) | Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) |
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph) |
Category of cyclonic disturbance |
| 01.12.20/0830 | 7.8/85.7 | 50-60 gusting to 70 | Deep Depression |
| 01.12.20/1130 | 7.9/85.3 | 55-65 gusting to 75 | Deep Depression |
| 01.12.20/1730 | 8.1/84.6 | 60-70 gusting to 75 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 01.12.20/2330 | 8.3/83.9 | 65-75 gusting to 85 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 02.12.20/0530 | 8.4/83.2 | 75-85 gusting to 95 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 02.12.20/1730 | 8.6/81.7 | 75-85 gusting to 95 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 03.12.20/0530 | 8.7/80.3 | 65-75 gusting to 85 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 03.12.20/1730 | 8.7/79.3 | 70-80 gusting to 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
| 04.12.20/0530 | 8.5/78.5 | 70-80 gusting to 90 | Cyclonic Storm |
Warnings:
(i) Rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with isolated Extremely heavy falls very likely over south Tamilnadu (Kanniyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Ramanathapuram and Sivagangai) on 2nd and 3rd December, 2020; over south Kerala(Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzah) on 3rd December and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over south Tamilnadu on 2nd & 4th December 2020 and south Kerala on 3rd & 4th December, 2020.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall at Isolated places very likely over north Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Mahe & Kariakal and north Kerala during 2nd & 3rd December, isolated heavy rainfall on 4th December and isolated heavy rainfall over coastal Tamilnadu on 1st December.
- Heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh during 2nd & 03rd December and over Lakshadweep during 03rd and 4th December, 2020.
| Sub-Divisions | 01 Dec 2020* | 02 Dec 2020* | 03 Dec 2020* | 04 Dec 2020* |
| South Tamilnadu | Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at few places and extremely heavy fall at isolated places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at few places and extremely heavy fall at isolated places | Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places |
| North Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal | Rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at many places with heavy fall at isolated places |
|
South Kerala |
Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at few places and extremely heavy fall at isolated places | Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places |
|
North Kerala & Mahe |
Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at a few places with heavy fall at isolated places |
| South Coastal Andhra Pradesh | Rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places | Rainfall at a few places |
| Lakshadweep | Rainfall at a few places | Rainfall at most places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very falls at isolated places | Rainfall at most places with heavy to very falls at isolated places |
(ii) Wind warning
- Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely over central parts of South Bay of Bengal during next 12 hours.
- It would gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal from 1st December evening. It would gradually increase becoming 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph over southwest Bay of Bengal, along & off Sri Lanka coast from 2nd December morning for subsequent 24 hours.
- Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely over Comorin Area, Gulf of Mannar and south Tamilnadu-Kerala coasts from 2nd December forenoon. It will gradually increase becoming 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph over Gulf of Mannar, along & off south Tamilnadu & Kerala coasts, over Comorin Area, Lakshadweep-Maldives area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea from 3rd December morning and 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph from evening of 3rd December for subsequent 24 hours.
(iii) Sea condition
- Prevailing rough to very rough sea condition over southeast Bay of Bengal will continue during 1st December and very rough to high over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off east Sri Lanka coast during 1st & 2nd December, and rough to very rough over Comorin Area, Gulf of Mannar & along & off south Tamilnadu-Kerala coasts from 2nd to 4th December.
· Sea condition will be rough to very rough over Lakshadweep-Maldives area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during 3rd – 4th December.
(iv) Fishermen Warning
- Total suspension of fishing operation during 1st december to 4th December over the areas as mentioned below.
- Fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Bay of Bengal during 1st December, southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off east Sri Lanka coast from 1st to 3rd December; Comorin Area, Gulf of Mannar and south Tamilnadu-Kerala coasts from 2nd to 4th December, over Lakshadweep-Maldives area & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea from 3rd to 4th December.
- Fishermen out at Sea are advised to return to the coast by today.
The system is under continuous surveillance and the concerned state governments are being informed regularly.
For details kindly visit www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in, www.mausam.imd.gov.in
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