IMD Forecast: Higher-Than-Normal Temperatures, Below-Average Rainfall Expected in February

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall across most parts of the country in February 2025. With global warming accelerating climatic changes, India is expected to experience early summer conditions in February itself.

Key Weather Projections for February 2025

• Above-Normal Temperatures Across India
  • Maximum temperatures will remain above normal in most regions.
  • Western Central India and parts of South India may experience near-normal temperatures.
  • Minimum temperatures will also be higher than normal, reducing winter intensity.
• Reduced Cold Wave Activity
  • IMD forecasts weaker cold wave conditions in northern states, including Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand.
  • Unlike previous years, fewer extreme cold days are expected in these areas.
• 78% Below-Normal Rainfall in Northwest India
  • Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, and Kashmir will receive significantly less rainfall—up to 78% below normal levels.
  • Experts attribute this to weak Western Disturbances, which are expected to bring limited cloud cover and rainfall activity

Impact of Rising Temperatures & Low Rainfall

1. Agricultural Challenges & Crop Yield Reduction

• Winter crops (Rabi crops) in North and Western India will be adversely affected due to insufficient rainfall.
• Horticulture production may suffer as fruit-bearing trees will bloom earlier than usual, affecting overall yield.
• Farmers will need to rely on artificial irrigation to maintain optimal crop conditions.

2. Higher Risk of Early Heatwaves & Drought Conditions

• With January already being one of the warmest on record, February’s rising temperatures may intensify dry conditions.
• Some regions may face early heatwave conditions, particularly in Central and Western India.

January 2025: Hottest January on Record Since 1901

• IMD reported that January 2025 was the hottest January recorded in India since 1901.
• Maximum temperature reached 25.45°C, surpassing the previous record average of 24.61°C—an increase of 0.84°C.
• October 2024 was also the warmest since 1901, signaling a consistent trend of rising temperatures due to climate change.

Conclusion: An Early Start to Summer

With higher-than-normal temperatures, reduced winter impact, and below-average rainfall, February 2025 is likely to set the stage for an early summer. The decline in winter rainfall and rising heat levels could worsen agricultural conditions and increase drought risks in several regions.

Farmers and policymakers will need to prepare for water management challenges and take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of rising temperatures on crops and overall climate stability.

IMD Forecast: Higher-Than-Normal Temperatures, Below-Average Rainfall Expected in February